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The global economy is a confusing mess. Europe is in a recession. One in five young people in China is unemployed. Pakistan just got a massive bailout. Yet in the United States, inflation is slowly returning to normal. Job growth remains outstanding. Consumers keep spending. The stock market is at a 15-month high. So why does everything feel so lousy? Prices are still rising. Housing is super expensive — if you can even find somewhere to live. Loans are pricey and hard to come by, too. Consumers are starting to hear the word "recession" get thrown around a lot, and they're starting to pull back on discretionary purchases. Revenge travel is over. So is the Great Resignation. And bosses are throwing cold water on the yearslong work-from-home vibe. It's definitely a weird time for the economy. But CNN Business' economy team has you covered. Here are the trends you need to be watching to figure out what's going on with the economy: |
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Any way you cut it, today's US job market is something for the ages. Just three years after the pandemic threw more than 20 million Americans out of work, the labor market has more than bounced back — to the point that there are now almost two jobs available for every person who wants one. |
Video: How to change jobs without fear |
Unemployment remains near historic lows, and while monthly job gains have slowed somewhat, the US economy is still adding more jobs per month than it did during any recent boom. However, the Federal Reserve believes fewer job openings, a greater supply of workers and more moderate wage gains could help take a bite out of America's stubborn inflation problem. That's why Fed officials (and lowly economic reporters) are glued to every piece of data the government releases — from ocean freight times to the price of a haircut to the average weekly wage. But still, those numbers are merely guideposts, because depending on where you live, where you're hoping to work and who you are, you could be having an entirely different experience than your neighbor or the stranger you passed on the street. |
Feeling the pain of inflation |
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Video: Why Florida is America's inflation hotspot |
Americans were stuck at home with nothing to spend their money on — and so they saved it up. Stimulus checks also helped create a cash stockpile. Once restrictions eased, Americans were ready to get spending. But retailers were struggling to purchase goods to stock. Excess demand and limited supply means increased prices. That's inflation. Inflation is normal — we expect prices to rise by about 2% every year. But when they rise too quickly, the economy can grind to a halt. So the Federal Reserve swung into action and started hiking interest rates in response. There were also a number of events that helped bring inflation down. That post-pandemic flurry of economic activity died down as Americans spent through their savings. A regional banking crisis earlier this year made it harder to obtain credit. Inflation is still elevated, but it has fallen back to a much more manageable 3%. Price increases still need to come down, but there is no longer an imminent inflation crisis. |
Swiping away on that credit card |
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When you give Americans a lot of money they can't spend because everything is closed, it turns out they'll actually make some really good decisions. For example, many Americans used their pandemic stimulus checks to pay off debt and build up savings. But alas, it was too good to be true. |
Household debt load has spiked by $2.9 trillion since the end of 2019. (Westend61/Getty Images) |
Now, households are shouldering $17 trillion of debt, according to the New York Federal Reserve. That's almost $3 trillion more debt than before the pandemic, for those keeping score. And Americans' love affair with credit cards grew $145 billion stronger over the past year. But it's probably not because everyone is buying Taylor Swift or Beyoncé concert tickets. It goes back to inflation making it harder to afford everyday necessities. And if the mild recession economists are predicting actually materializes, it's going to be harder for Americans to rebuild their nest eggs. |
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The Federal Reserve's yearlong fight against the highest inflation since the 1980s has come a long way since it began to lift interest rates in March 2022. In order to cool the economy and encourage people to slow their spending, officials at the central bank think two more rate hikes are needed this year. That's on top of the 10 consecutive hikes the Fed has approved in the past 15 months. |
Some Federal Reserve officials are already advocating for two consecutive rate hikes starting this month to ensure inflation's defeat. (Graeme Sloan/Sipa USA/AP) |
The next rate hike is likely to be announced soon, when Fed Chair Jerome Powell presides over the July monetary policy meeting. Under his guidance, the US economy could finally pull off a "soft landing" this year — a scenario in which inflation falls from its recent 9.1% peak to a manageable 2% level without damaging the economy and putting millions of Americans out of work. That would be welcome news to businesses and households who have suffered some of the highest costs for food, homes and loans in a generation. |
A tough summer in housing |
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Renters are still seeing prices higher than many incomes can absorb. The housing market remains stuck, with sales pushed lower by a lack of affordability, low inventory, recent credit tightening, high interest rates, and home prices firming up across the country after a brief correction last fall. Many current homeowners who bought or refinanced into a 2%, 3% or 4% mortgage rate are reluctant to sell and become buyers with a mortgage at 6% or higher. In recent weeks, with mortgage rates closing in on 7%, affordability has become worse. But there are some bright spots. |
US mortgage rates are inching closer to 7%, reaching their highest level since November. (Nathan Howard/Bloomberg/Getty Images) |
Rents are ticking down slightly nationally, though still out of whack with incomes. Mortgage rates are expected to drop to around 6% by the second half of this year as inflation continues to cool. Although it may not feel like it, home prices are trending lower nationally, falling on a monthly year-over-year basis since March, according to the National Association of Realtors. Lastly, during this typically busy time of year there are fewer buyers, which means less competition, creating an opening for people with more limited funds, like first-time home buyers. |
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- Edited and produced by Erica Hernandez, Kyle Almond, Tricia Escobedo and Kimberly Richardson |
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